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These advance estimates are based on anticipated level of agricultural
and industrial production, analysis of budget estimates of government
expenditure and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport
other than railways, communication, banking and insurance, available
so far. The advance estimates at current prices are derived by estimating
the implicit price deflators (IPDs) at sectoral level from the relevant
price indices. The salient features of these estimates are detailed
below:
Estimates at Constant (1999-2000) Prices
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (1999-2000)
prices in the year 2005-06 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 25,86,587
crore, as against the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2004-05
of Rs. 23,93,671 crore, released on 31st January 2006. The growth
in GDP during 2005-06 is estimated at 8.1 per cent as compared to
the growth rate of 7.5 per cent during 2004-05.
The growth rate of 8.1 per cent in GDP during 2005-06 has mainly
been due to the growth rates of over 5 per cent in the sectors of
‘manufacturing’, ‘electricity, gas and water supply',
‘construction’, 'trade, hotels, transport and communication',
'financing, insurance, real estate and business services', and 'community,
social and personal services'.
Agriculture
The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely
to show a growth rate of 2.3 per cent in its GDP during 2005-06,
as against the previous year’s growth rate of 0.7 per cent.
Industry.
According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial
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Production (IIP), the
index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates
of 0.6 per cent, 9.4 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively during
April-November, 2005-06, as compared to the growth rates of 5.1 per
cent, 9.1 per cent and 6.6 per cent in these sectors during April-November,
2004-05. The construction sector is expected to show a growth rate
of 12.1 per cent during 2005-06, mainly on account of growth in production
of 10.9 per cent in cement and 7.1 per cent in steel during April-December
2005-06, as against the growth rates of 6.9 per cent and 7.5 per cent,
respectively during April-December, 2004-05.
Services
The estimated growth in GDP for the trade, hotels, transport and communication
sectors during 2005-06 is placed at 11.1 per cent, mainly on account
of a growth of 7.5 per cent in the gross trading index, 5.3 per cent
in net tonne kilometres of Railways and 10.8 per cent in passenger
kilometres of Railways, 10.9 per cent in cargo handled at major ports,
9.6 per cent in the production of commercial vehicles, and 35.2 per
cent in stock of telephone connections, during April-November, 2005-06.
The sector, 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services',
is expected to show a growth rate of 9.5 per cent during 2005-06,
on account of 18.9 per cent growth in aggregate deposits and 29.7
per cent growth in bank credit during November 2004 to November 2005.
The growth rate of 'community, social and personal services' during
2005-06 is estimated to be 7.9 per cent.
National Income
The net national product (NNP) at factor cost, also known as national
income, at 1999-2000 prices is likely to be
Rs. 23,04,043 crore during |
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2005- 06,
as against the previous year's Quick Estimate of Rs. 21,41,776 crore.
In terms of growth rates, the national income is expected to rise
by 7.6 per cent during 2005-06 in comparison to the growth rate
of 7.8 per cent in 2004-05.
Per Capita Income
The per capita income in real terms (at 1999-2000 prices) during
2005-06 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 20,813 as compared to
the Quick Estimate for the year 2004-05 of Rs. 19,649. The growth
rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.9 per cent during 2005-06,
as against the previous year's estimate of 6.1 per cent.
Estimates at Current Prices
Gross Domestic Product
GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2005-06 is likely
to attain a level of Rs. 32,00,611 crore, showing a growth rate
of 12.5 per cent over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2004-05
of Rs. 28,43,897 crore.
National Income
The NNP at factor cost at current prices is anticipated to be Rs.28,54,683
crore during 2005-06, as compared to Rs. 25,31,223 crore during
2004-05, showing a rise of 12.8 per cent.
Per Capita Income
The per capita income at current prices during 2005-06 is estimated
to be Rs. 25,788 as compared to Rs. 23,222 during 2004-05, showing
a rise of 11.0 per cent.
Estimates of gross/net national product, gross/net domestic product
and per capita income alongwith GDP at factor cost by kind of economic
activity for the years 2004-05 and 2005-06 at constant (1999-2000)
and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.
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